Gas Market
In what was a choppy session, NBP near months finished the day below their previous close, averaging losses of 1.02p per therm, driven by weakness across the wider energy complex. The November-24 contract shed 1.05p to close at 99.37p per therm, while the December-24 contract posted the biggest loss on the curve, falling by 1.11p to settle at 101.96p per therm. Strong wind generation levels limited gas-for-power demand on the day, which also helped to mitigate the impact of an outage at Norway’s Troll field which is due to be resolved on Monday. The Within day contract fell by 2.00p day-on-day to settle at 97.05p per therm, while the Day ahead contract posted a 1.75p decline to end the week at 97.00p per therm.
Power Market
Near curve losses on the NBP provided direction to GB Baseload contracts on Friday. Near months exhibited the biggest losses, averaging a day-on-day decline of £1.13/MWh. The front month contract shed £1.15/MWh to end the session at £85.25/MWh. Above average wind power production for the coming two weeks will likely limit gas-for-power demand, although this did not result in any significant losses on the prompt.
Gas market losses pressured European carbon prices to unwind some of their recent gains on Friday, although losses were limited. Dec-24 EUA’s shed just €0.05 to close at €64.80 a tonne, while UK Allowances for Dec-24 posted a day-on-day decline of £0.49 to end the session at £37.51 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices edged lower on Friday, but still ended the session up 1.2% week-on-week. The market remained tentative to a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure which could impact on supplies in the region. Upside from the geopolitical unrest was tempered somewhat though by the effects of Hurricane Milton, with the extreme weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico weakening fuel consumption in parts of one of the world’s largest oil consumers. Front month Brent ended the session at $79.04 a barrel, down just 36 cents day-on-day, while WTI for November delivery closed at $75.56 a barrel, a loss of just 29 cents on the previous close.
Markets this morning
NBP curve prices have edged up this morning, with the November-24 contract trading 0.30p per therm above Friday’s close. Prompt contracts are yet to trade. The GB system is currently operating in a short position, despite increased Norwegian supply as well as a ramp up in LNG send-out. Lingering unplanned outages from the weekend may be adding to the system tightness. Crude oil prices are back in negative territory this morning on the release of data which showed China’s inflation rate declined and a lack of clarity on the country’s economic stimulus plans which stoked fears about fuel demand. Front month Brent last went through at $78.02, down just over a dollar day-on-day.
14 October 2024
