The NBP curve edged down again on Monday, with most contracts across the curve finishing below their previous close for the fourth day in a row.

Gas Market

NBP curve contracts continued to shed value for the fourth day in row on Monday. Having spent much of the session below the 100p per therm mark, the front month contract eventually settled at 100.39p per therm, down 2.61p day-on-day. Having shed 9.9% week-on-week, this was the lowest the January-25 contract has closed since the end of September. Expectations of steady LNG arrivals over the coming weeks weighed on the near curve, with 9 LNG cargoes expected to arrive into the UK by January 2nd. Weak weather fundamentals for the front month, which could further decrease the risk of low European storage levels heading into summer, also played into the downside. Storage levels across Europe currently stand at 77.9%, 10.7% below levels this time last year. Prompt contracts were also in decline on the day, largely due to short-term forecasts of high winds and warmer temperatures. Day ahead posted a 4.28p discount to its previous close to end the session at 97.55p per therm.  

Power Market

GB baseload futures tracked the downside exhibited on the NBP curve on Monday, with near months declining by an average of £1.75/MWh. As its expiry nears, the front month contract shed 2.2% day-on-day to end the session at £87.33/MWh. Although wind power output was expected to be well above average for the remainder of the week, the Day ahead contract still increased by 20.5% day-on-day on reduced nuclear availability. European carbon prices weakened on Monday, in line with losses seen across the gas markets. As the EUA Dec-24 contract nears expiry, activity has begun to turn to the Dec-25 contract, which fell by €1.38 day-on-day to end the session at €65.15 a tonne.    

Oil Market

After closing on Friday at its highest level in 3 weeks, front month Brent edged back down on Monday. The February delivery contract settled at $73.91 a barrel, 58 cents lower day-on-day, pressured by weakness in consumer spending in China, the world’s largest oil importer. Chinese industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, but retail sales were slower than expected, increasing the need to ramp up stimulus for a fragile economy facing U.S. trade tariffs under a second Trump administration. All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve from Tuesday as the central bank will meet for the final time this year where a decision to cut interest rates further is likely to be made. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand.    

Markets this morning

Activity on the NBP near curve has been choppy so far this morning. Having opened 0.52p below yesterday’s close, the front month contract last went through at 100.80p per therm, a slight increase of 0.41p day-on-day. Activity on the prompt is quieter, with the Day ahead contract last transacting at 98.50p per therm, up 0.95p, while the Spot is yet to get going. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have continued to edge down this morning as fundamentals remain largely unchanged. Weak economic data from China has renewed demand concerns, while the market will remain tentative to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected this week. Brent for February delivery last went through at $73.51 a barrel down 40 cents day-on-day.