NBP futures opened in bullish form on Monday after Friday’s heated meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy

Gas Market

Gas prices surged yesterday morning following a tense meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy on Friday. The meeting, initially expected to precede the signing of a minerals deal, instead cast further doubt on the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement. As a result, the front-month NBP April contract spiked to an intraday high of 112.50p/therm before retreating to a settlement price of 107.16p/therm, still marking an average increase of 2.16p across near-curve contracts. Movements on the prompt were more limited, with the Day -ahead contract gaining 0.90p to settle at 108.28p/th due to lower gas for power demand. In Ireland, Minister for Transport, Environment, Climate and Energy Darragh O’Brien will seek Government approval to develop a State-led liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal for the purposes of increasing Ireland’s energy security.  

Power Market

GB baseload prices surged at the opening on Monday, driven by sharp gains in NBP prices. However, much of the early increase was reversed as gas prices retreated, despite Friday evening’s tense meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents, which further dimmed hopes of resumed Russian gas flows to Europe and heightened geopolitical tensions across the bloc. The GB front-month April contract settled £1.00 higher at £87.00/MWh. EU carbon prices followed suit, rising as much as 2.6% in early trading before settling at €71.54 per tonne for the 2025 EUA contract, up a more modest €0.48 or €0.68%.  

Oil Market

Uncertainty in the market following the heated meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy on Friday saw crude oil prices move sideways on Monday morning.  Later prices slumped following Trump’s press conference in which he said tariffs of up to 25% would be applied to imports from Mexico and Canada from Tuesday.  Brent fell to a fresh 12-week low and settled $1.56 down at $71.62 a barrel for the May contract.  The move is expected to spark a trade war as Canada and Mexico have said they will retaliate with increased duties on U.S. goods or even hold back on exports which could cripple U.S. manufacturing. Crude oil prices came under further pressure after OPEC+ confirmed they intend to increase production from April. The group are to start unwinding voluntary cuts with production to increase by 138,000 barrels per day in April.  

Markets this morning

European energy markets have opened with some volatility this morning following multiple announcements from the White House, including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine and the imposition of a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, on top of last month’s 10% levy. Front-month Brent is down almost a dollar to $70.65/bbl as the new tariffs are expected to weigh on demand. Near-curve NBP contracts have declined by an average of 2.00p, as the suspension of US support for Ukraine could force a swifter end to the war. Meanwhile, milder weather and a well-supplied UK system is set to persist until the end of the week and should pressure prompt prices.