NBP prices on Tuesday oscillated close to the previous close, with near-curve contracts shedding value

Gas Market

Tuesday’s session on the NBP was best described as choppy. Traded contracts oscillated close to Monday’s close for much of the day. The front-month contract, May-25, rose during morning trading, reaching an intraday high of 87.26 pence per therm, marking a day-on-day gain of 1.89p. However, a late-afternoon decline in EUA carbon markets appeared to weigh on both UK and European gas prices—contrary to the typical correlation between the two markets. Following increased trading activity on the EUA markets, gas prices reversed all of their earlier gains. The May-25 contract fell to a low of 83.62p/th—a swing of 3.64p—before settling at 84.32p/th, ending the day with a loss of 1.05p. Further along the curve, prices held on to much of their early gains, suggesting the near-curve sell-off was likely due to short term sentiment rather than a reflection of a renewed outlook for weaker demand.  

Power Market

Near curve baseload contracts settled lower taking direction from a late fall on the NBP gas market. The front season, Winter-25, posted a day-on-day decline of £0.70/MWh. However, from Summer-26 onwards the GB baseload market was supported by a bounce in UK carbon allowances. The Dec-26 contract increased by 0.28 to £49.28/tonne, while a strong NBP gas curve also further supported baseload prices. Carbon prices over the past week have experienced an increase in price having reached a 7-motnh low. However, a sell off late in Tuesday’s session say the Dec-25 fall to €66.19/tonne, the contract’s first decline in a week of trading.  

Oil Market

Despite the 90-day pause on many of President Trump’s tariffs, uncertainty continues to linger in commodity markets. Markets remain concerned about how severely China—and by extension, global—demand for oil will be affected by the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Brent crude oil prices saw a marginal decline during Tuesday’s session, following the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) updated demand outlook for 2025. In its latest revision, it cut its forecast for demand growth by 29% compared to previous estimates, projecting an increase of 0.73 million barrels per day (mbpd). This mirrors a similar percentage reduction by the U.S. Energy Information Administration which forecasts demand growth at 0.9 mbpd. Meanwhile, OPEC revised its projections, forecasting a 10% reduction in demand growth to 1.3 mbpd. The wide range of forecasts underscores the difficulty markets face in quantifying the impact global tariffs may have on oil demand.  

Markets this morning

The UK gas system is currently balanced with high wind generation suppressing gas for power demand. As result prompt prices are flat within day, although are marginally higher tomorrow when the wind speed is expected to fall. On the near curve NBP gas prices are currently flat having retreated from early morning highs, with May-25 last traded at 84.63p/th. Brent Crude oil is trading in positive territory with support coming from the latest refinery data available from China. The data shows an uptick in refinery throughput to levels not seen since 2011. The latest data for March follows on from a strong start to 2025 with Q1 refinery throughput up 4.3% year on year.