After spending much of Wednesday morning trading above the previous close, NBP curve contracts edged back down later in the session to finish mostly flat day-on-day.

Gas Market

After spending much of Wednesday morning trading above the previous close, NBP curve contracts edged back down later in the session to finish mostly flat day-on-day. Reports that the White House are considering cutting tariffs on Chinese imports as well as the impact of the possible withdrawal of the U.S. from peace negotiations with Ukraine and Russia added to the choppiness. Having reached an intra-day high of 86.03p per therm, the front month contract went on to close at 83.61p, down 0.38p day-on-day. The Spot and prompt market were similarly flat, with both the Within day and Day ahead contracts adding 0.15p per therm day-on-day. Stable Norwegian flows into the U.K. helped to offset a slight reduction in imports from the UKCS due to a minor outage, while a down-turn in gas-for-power demand levels from today also helped to curb upside.  

Power Market

Wednesday saw mixed movements across the GB Baseload curve driven by volatility across gas and carbon markets. The front month contract gained £1.10/MWh day-on-day to settle at £74.65/MWh, while Q3 25 edged up by just £0.15/MWh to close at £76.10/MWh. Meanwhile on the prompt, the Day ahead contract posted a loss of £5.09/MWh to close at £84.00/MWh. Low wind levels were expected to be offset by high solar output from today, weighing on short-term products. The bulls were in firm control of European carbon markets on Wednesday, with UK Allowances reaching one-month highs as optimism grew ahead of an EU-UK meeting that will likely see market linking discussed. UKA’s for December 25 increased by £1.42 day-on-day to close at £48.30 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Reports suggesting that OPEC+ could ramp up its oil output from next month drove losses across oil markets on Wednesday. The news comes against a backdrop of dispute amongst OPEC+ members over compliance with production quotas. Kazakhstan has stated that they will prioritize national interest over the concerns of the OPEC+ group, suggesting that the country will continue to produce well above its agreed limits. The front month Brent contract fell by $1.32 day-on-day to end the session at $66.12 a barrel, its lowest close so far this week. Further losses were curbed however by news that the Trump administration was considering cutting its tariffs on Chinese imports. The tariffs could potentially come down to between 50% and 65%, easing global economic concerns in the process.    

Markets this morning

NBP curve contracts have opened lower this morning despite heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine overnight further diminishing hopes of peace. Warmer temperatures forecasted from the end the month and into May are weighing on the near curve, with the front month contract last going through at 80.96p per therm, down 2.65p from yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, the Winter 25 contract was last bought at 90.00p per therm, down just over 2p day-on-day. Spot and prompt activity is quiet so far. Oil markets have so far regained some ground from yesterday’s losses with the front month Brent contract last transacting at $66.38 a barrel, up 26 cents.