Gas Market
NBP futures chalked up its seventh successive day of declines on Monday as market fundamentals weighed on prices while geopolitical tensions continued to dissipate. The front of the curve saw losses from the get-go on Monday albeit modest and Winter-25 contract found some resistance at the 90.00p per therm mark but finally broke through late in the session with the contract trading down to 88.65p but rebounded before the close to settle at 89.40p, down 1.80p day-on-day. The new front month, August, yielded 1.35p to close at 77.33p, its lowest settlement since the end of April. Prompt prices found some support from increased demand required for the power stack as cooling load increased due to a hot spell in Britain.
Power Market
GB baseload power contracts eased on Monday with pressure from falling gas and carbon prices. Losses to the front months were curbed by reports that French nuclear availability is to be ramped down by 6.8GW due to high river temperatures. This added some support to the prompt on the day as baseload for the day ahead added 13.6% or £11.00/MWh. August will assume front month status on Tuesday and settled £0.58/MWh down yesterday.
Carbon EUAs fell by an average of 2.4% or €1.72 per tonne yesterday following a selloff triggered by stop losses. Late in the session, prices picked up from the intra-day lows as traders snapped up the discounted prices to fill long positions.
Oil Market
The crude oil markets were subdued on Monday with Brent easing by 16 cents to $67.61 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, settled at $65.11, down 41 cents a barrel. With the truce between Israel and Iran appearing to hold up, the markets are looking to the OPEC+ meeting with the group promising to increase output in August by 411,000 barrel per day. OPEC have pledged similar increases in production each month since May as the group continue to unwind voluntary cuts and there are concerns the extra supply will pressure prices if demand slows. Meanwhile, The Energy Information Administration has reported that U.S. crude oil production has hit a record 13.47m barrels per day in April which added to the downside.
Markets this morning
Early losses have been reversed on the NBP curve this morning. August traded down to 76.56p per therm but the most recent deal was done at 78.62p, which is 1.29p above last night’s close. The Winter-25 contract last traded at 90.58p, up 1.18p and contracts past the winter are not as liquid. Crude oil prices remain flat this morning with September, the new front month for Brent 3 cents up at $66.77 a barrel as the markets await confirmation from OPEC’s production increases for August. After yesterday’s sharp losses, carbon EUAs have recovered this morning with European allowances for 2025 and 2026 around €1.00 per tonne higher.
01 July 2025
