Gas Market
The NBP market edged up on Thursday, although the near months managed to stay below the 100p per therm mark for the most part. On its penultimate day of trading before it expires, the April-25 contract gained 0.35p to close the session at 99.35p per therm. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine as well as uncertainty around the looming summer maintenance schedule were price supportive on the day. Despite short-term bearish weather and demand fundamentals the prompt market edged up, choosing to focus instead on an extension to a planned outage at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG plant. The Day ahead contract posted a 0.40p gain to settle at 98.00p per therm. Meanwhile, the Spot market declined on an oversupplied system, with Within day shedding 0.80p per therm day-on-day.
Power Market
The GB Baseload prompt edged down on Thursday, driven by wind and solar power production forecasts of more than 20% above normal for the rest of the week, as well as warmer temperatures. The Day ahead contract shed £17.91/MWh to close at £68.59/MWh. The weakness from the prompt fed into a modest loss on the front month contract which fell by £0.15/MWh day-on-day while much of the rest of the curve tracked gains on the NBP.
European carbon markets slumped on Thursday on heavy selling activity. The Spot EUA contract shed €2.57 to settle at a two-week low of €66.76 a tonne. UK Allowances also fell back with the Dec 25 contract posting a day-on-day loss of £1.39 a tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices hovered just under their one-month high on Thursday as the impact of the latest round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. balanced out a reported significant drawdown in U.S. gasoline and distlillate stocks. While inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a 3.3 million barrel reduction in crude, which pointed to healthy demand from industrial and transport sectors, concerns loomed around the impact that the Trump administrations’ tariffs may have on growth expectations. The front month Brent contract edged up by 24 cents to close at $74.03 barrel, just one cent off the one-month high. Its West Texas Intermediate counterpart made similar modest day-on-day gains to close at $69.92 a barrel.
Markets this morning
NBP near curve products have this morning retraced yesterday’s gains with the April 25 contract, which will expire today as the front month, last transacting at 98.65p per therm, down 0.70p day-on-day. Prompt and Spot activity is quiet so far, although a downward revision to both temperatures and wind speeds for the rest of the week and into next could prove price supportive. The GB system is currently well-supplied and showing a surplus of 5 mcm. Crude oil prices have continued to make very gradual ground this morning with the front month Brent contract showing a day-on-day increase of 14 cents at the last trade.
28 March 2025
