Near curve gas prices rebound following Monday’s losses

Gas Market

Gas prices edged higher at settlement on Tuesday, recovering modestly after Monday’s losses as strength in U.S. Henry Hub prices provided support. While milder conditions across western Europe limited upside, forecasts for a renewed cold spell in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast lifted U.S. gas prices, feeding through to LNG-linked pricing and underpinning UK and European contracts. The front-month contract settled at 93.95p/th, up 2.01p on the day, while the Summer-26 contract gained 1.62p to close at 72.65p/th. Post-settlement trading, however, saw sentiment weaken, with February sliding to a low of 90.04p/th and Summer-26 falling to 70.32p/th. On the prompt, the continuation of mild weather weighed on prices, with both the Within-Day and Day-Ahead contracts shedding 2.00p from Monday’s close.

Power Market

GB Baseload power prices continued to edge lower on Tuesday despite the gains on the NBP. The front month February contract fell by £1.00/MWh to £98.75, while the summer contract settled at £73.10/MWh. The daily decline was attributed to the decline on the UKA carbon market which weighed on GB power prices. the bellwether Dec-26 UKA contract fell by 5.65% and was assessed at £64.46/tonne at settlement. European carbon prices fell on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive session of sharp losses and the largest two-day downward move in a year, with declines of 4.24% on Monday and 3.96% on Tuesday. The move was driven by tariff threats from President Trump, raising concerns over weaker European economic activity.

Oil Market

Front-month Brent crude settled at $64.98/bbl on Tuesday, increasing by $0.98, as traders reacted to a temporary halt in output at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz complex and signs of firmer global growth supporting demand. The disruption, linked to power distribution issues at the Tengiz and Korolev fields, is expected to last up to a week and could curb flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, lending near-term support to prices. Sentiment was further buoyed by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data and an upward revision to global growth forecasts by the IMF, reinforcing confidence in fuel consumption from the world’s largest oil importer. A softer U.S. dollar and firm diesel cracks also underpinned the move. However, gains were tempered by persistent concern over U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats against Europe, which risk weighing on global growth and oil demand if trade tensions intensify.

Markets this morning

Post-settlement trading on Tuesday saw NBP gas contracts move lower initially, weighing on near-curve contracts in early trading this morning. The front-month contract opened at 89.51p/th before recovering to 95.51p/th, up 1.56p on the day. Elevated U.S. prices continue to underpin European gas, with the Henry Hub front-month contract rising 26% amid forecasts of a cold spell in the Midwest and Northeast. Brent crude eased, pressured by a build in U.S. inventories, suggesting weaker demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. EU carbon prices are relatively flat following the steep declines of the previous two sessions.