Gas Market
Gas markets remained volatile for a third consecutive session following the U.S. strikes on Iran, although prices eased on the day as part of the geopolitical risk premium began to fade from near-curve contracts. The front-season Summer-26 contract traded in a broad 24p/th range, briefly climbing to 129.00p/th before retreating to a session low of 105.00p/th, before settling at 111.77p/th. Movements on the front month were even more pronounced, with prices swinging between 156.01p/th and 118.43p/th, representing a 37.58p/th intraday spread as traders reacted to rapidly shifting headlines. Despite the pullback, the market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing disruption to LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained effectively closed for several days raising concerns over near-term supply availability. The Ras Laffan LNG liquefaction complex in Qatar has remained offline for safety reasons, further adding to uncertainty around LNG flows and contributing to the heightened volatility seen across the near curve.
Power Market
GB baseload prices remained volatile as the market tracked developments on the NBP gas market, which continues to fluctuate amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Summer-26 contract fell by £10.30 to £91.00/MWh as losses on the NBP weighed on the contract. Further along the curve, baseload prices for 2028 are now lower than five days ago, illustrating the market’s belief that the risks remain concentrated in the short term.
The Dec-26 EUA contract fell by €3.03 to settle at €70.38/tonne, reversing Tuesday’s gains. Weighing on the market is continued political pressure after Italian Industry Minister Adolfo Urso formally called for the suspension of the EU ETS pending reform, labelling the system “nothing more than a tax.”
Oil Market
The front-month Brent crude contract settled at $81.40/bbl on Wednesday after a volatile session, as traders assessed escalating U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran alongside ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices briefly climbed above $84/bbl earlier in the day on fears the conflict could significantly impede Middle Eastern energy flows, before paring gains following reports that Iranian officials may be open to discussions aimed at ending the fighting. The Strait has remained effectively closed for several days, complicating exports from the region. Iraq has already been forced to curb output due to limited storage and constrained export routes, highlighting the logistical challenges created by the disruption. At the same time, U.S. crude inventories have climbed to multi-year highs, underscoring that global supplies remain ample for now. As a result, traders are balancing the risk of prolonged regional instability with still-elevated inventories, leaving prices sensitive to further developments.
Markets this morning
Concerns over LNG and oil tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive volatility in both markets this morning. Front-month NBP gas is trading in a 17.36p range, with the April contract last at 130.74p/th, up 3.86p, showing a more restrained session compared with the swings seen over the past three days. Front-month oil is also higher at $82.88/bbl, supported by ongoing Middle East supply worries and reports that China has ordered a suspension of diesel and gasoline exports. Traders remain focused on the evolving situation, with flows and regional developments continuing to influence both gas and oil prices throughout the session.
05 March 2026
